İhtimâl Kuramının Sözde “Üçüncü Aksiyomu” Foldur — Dr. Işık Barış Fidaner

YERSİZ ŞEYLER

14 Mart 2017, EN

1. Bir mümkün neticenin hem gerçellenmesine hem de gerçellenmemesine katkı yapan faktörler vardır.

Bir zarın atılmasında altı sayısının gelmesinin hem gerçellenmesine hem de gerçellenmemesine katkı yapan faktörlerden bazıları:

i) Gerçel atma işi. Atmanın kendisi olmadan altı sayısı ne gelebilir ne de gelmeyebilir.

ii) Attıktan sonra geçen süre. Attıktan sonra yeterli zaman geçmeden altı sayısı ne gelebilir ne de gelmeyebilir.

iii) Görüşün engellenmemesi. Atılan zarı netlikle görebilen bir gözlemci olmadan altı sayısı ne gelebilir ne de gelmeyebilir.

iv) Güvenilir bir gözlemci. Güvenebileceğimiz en azından bir gözlemci olmadan altı sayısı ne gelebilir ne de gelmeyebilir.

v) Düz bir zemin. Düz bir zemin olmadan altı sayısı ne gelebilir ne de gelmeyebilir.

vi) Dünya üzerinde yerçekimi. Dünya üzerinde yerçekimi olmadan altı sayısı ne gelebilir ne de gelmeyebilir.

vii) Sayılar için simgeleri de içeren ortak bir dil. Ortak bir dilde kaydını düşme yetisi olmadan…

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The so-called “Third Axiom of Probability” is false — Dr. Işık Barış Fidaner

1. There are factors that contribute both to the actualization & non-actualization of a possible outcome.

For the throw of a die, here are some of the factors that contribute both to the actualization and non-actualization of the number six turning up:

i) The actual throw. Without the throw itself, the number six may neither turn up nor non-turn up.

ii) The time passing after the throw. Without sufficient time passing after the throw, the number six may neither turn up nor non-turn up.

iii) The non-occlusion of view. Without a clear view of the die for an observer, the number six may neither turn up nor non-turn up.

iv) A trustworthy observer. Without at least one trustworthy observer (oneself or another) the number six may neither turn up nor non-turn up.

v) A flat ground. Without a flat ground, the number six may neither turn up nor non-turn up.

vi) Gravity on the Earth. Without the gravity on the Earth, the number six may neither turn up nor non-turn up.

vii) A common language that includes symbols for numbers. Without the ability to register it via a common language, the number six may neither turn up nor non-turn up.

I’ll call these factors, shared factors of a possible outcome.

2. To indicate such factors, there must be some common terms between the summation that computes the probability of the possible outcome being actualized, and the summation that computes the probability of the same possible outcome not being actualized.

The shared factors of a possible outcome are vital for that outcome and other outcomes related to it: The initial impulse, the time passing, the visibility, the trust, the ground, the gravity and the symbols to express the outcome. Any algorithm that computes outcomes related to that possible outcome must take these factors into account.

The actualization and non-actualization of the possible outcome must be articulated in a way to include the shared factors that occur on both sides of the possible outcome.

3. The set of terms that signal the actualization of a possibility cannot be mutually disjoint with the set of terms that signal the non-actualization of the same possibility.

If the terms that express the actualization and the non-actualization of an outcome satisfied mutual exclusivity, if any one of the terms that articulate an outcome appeared only on one side of the possibility in question, they would simply amount to a failure in articulation that ignores the vital shared factors that determine the outcome.

4. The so-called “Third Law of Probability” or “Third Axiom of Probability” is false.

Dr. Işık Barış Fidaner

 

Logarithmic greetings to my visitor numbers

YERSİZ ŞEYLER

selamlar

Sweden took in large numbers and had problems.

I don’t take in large numbers and I don’t have problems.

IBF

Sweden, who would believe this? Sweden. They took in large numbers. They’re having problems like they never thought possible. You look at what’s happening in Brussels. You look at what’s happening all over the world. Take a look at Nice. Take a look at Paris. — Donald Trump

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Why Thursday? It’s the monomyth! #FolkloreThursday — Dr. Işık Barış Fidaner

Greetings to #FolkloreThursday!

In a news story about #FolkloreThursday last year, David Barnett raises the question: Why Thursday? [■]

He quotes Dee Dee Chainey’s reference to Norwegian traditions, which is presumably Thor’s day. Thor is a local explanation that I like and accept [*] but let me also give a further global answer to this same question.

Continue reading “Why Thursday? It’s the monomyth! #FolkloreThursday — Dr. Işık Barış Fidaner”

Introduction to Sociotechnical Cognition — compilation